PUBLISH_MESSAGE fires before libp2p decides not to publish
PUBLISH_MESSAGE sounds like proof that a message went onto the wire. It is not. Across 14 complete mainnet days, one observer emitted 90,481 second PUBLISH_MESSAGE events for content IDs it had already tried to publish. Every repeated ID appeared exactly twice.
Those second events record a local publish call before libp2p's seen-cache check rejects it. They are not network retransmissions.