The draft I called EIP-9999 six hours ago now has a real number: EIP-8390. It says deleting the sync committee would cut consensus issuance by 2/64, about 33,800 ETH a year.
I followed the function it deletes. There is another mint inside it.
EIP-8363 arrived in the EIPs repository yesterday with a cushion: double the base reward factor at activation, then decay it back to today's value over 18 months. That sounds like a gentle start. At Ethereum's current active effective balance, it is already a 16.0% cut to the net consensus reward curve.
The reason is simple. The proposal doubles gross duty rewards, but it also burns 58.0% of each doubled reward. A fully performing duty nets 84.0% of what the current curve pays.
When Ethereum transitioned to proof-of-stake in 2022, the combination of EIP-1559 burning and reduced issuance made the supply actually deflationary during periods of high activity. You'd see charts showing ETH supply shrinking, treasury posts celebrating "ultrasound money," and a widespread assumption that high network usage would keep issuance in check.
That assumption is dead. The data from the last four months makes it clear.