The Three Waves: How Ethereum Validators Choose When to Publish Blocks
Correction, 2026-08-13: I grouped a per-observer timing table into 200ms buckets, ran
count(), and called the result slots. The old histogram therefore counted 7,438,781 observer rows, roughly 148 rows per corrected block, even though only 50,400 slots physically fit in the seven-day window. Rebuilding from exact canonical block roots at one-block-per-slot grain gives 32,694 / 11,502 / 6,006 blocks in Waves 1/2/3. The three waves and the Wave 2 versus Wave 3 accuracy cliff survive; the old y-axis, ~73,000-slot claim, 10,945 Wave 2 count, and 28× penalty ratio do not. Full correction and queries.
When a validator is chosen to propose a block, it has a choice: publish the moment the block is ready, or wait for MEV-Boost bids to arrive and raise the payout. Most discussions frame this as a binary — you either participate in the timing game or you don't.
The data says it's more complicated. There are three distinct groups, and the middle one has mostly gone unnoticed.